Emergency Preparedness
TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE PREPARATION

Hurricane season begins June 1st of each year and ends November 30th. South Florida can be threatened any time during this season.  This information will help you prepare for a hurricane. Please take the time to read this information carefully.

The following are some useful definitions:

• TROPICAL DEPRESSION has winds of less than 39 miles per hour or 34 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM has winds from 39 to 73 miles per hour or 34 to 63 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM “WARNING” once issued, can develop into a hurricane. 
• HURRICANE “WATCH” - a hurricane may threaten the area within 24-36 hours.
• HURRICANE “WARNING” - a hurricane is expected to strike the area within 24 hours or less.
• HURRICANE has winds of greater than 74 miles per hour or 64 knots.
            Category 1 74-95 MPH Minimal
            Category 2 95-110 MPH Moderate
            Category 3 111-130 Major
            Category 4 131-155 Extensive
            Category 5 156 MPH + Catastrophic

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO BE READY IN THE EVENT OF A DISASTER?

Before the Storm
Preparing in advance for hurricane season can determine not only how safely and comfortably you ride out the storm, but also how easily it is to handle the days and weeks after the storm has passed.  Take a look at the information collected below to learn how you can prepare in the days and weeks before a hurricane.

Plan your stay or evacuation:
Stay Home
: However, before you choose this option, make sure you know your elevation. If we experience a storm that may put a significant storm surge in your home, you need to look at the other options. Also, people in manufactured and mobile homes cannot use this option. Mobile homes and manufactured homes are not built to withstand the high winds associated with tropical storms and hurricanes.

Stay With a Friend or Relative Who has a Safe Place: If this is your plan, make arrangements in advance. You need to make sure that where you are going is safe. It defeats the purpose of evacuating if you go to an unsafe place.

Relocate Out of the Area: You may wish to travel out of harm’s way. Be sure to bring a road map and make sure that your car is full of fuel. Stay away from major bodies of water. Make arrangements in advance if you can. If you decide to use this option, go early, traffic will be heavy if you leave at the last minute, and you may not make it to your destination.

Emergency Public Shelters: For more information on Emergency Shelters and a list of available Public Shelters please visit a Miami-Dade Public Library or Publix Su

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics

Wed, 26 Sep 2018 11:57:53 GMT

Tropical Storm Kirk 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Sep 2018 11:57:53 GMT

Tropical Storm Kirk 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Sep 2018 09:22:07 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)

Wed, 26 Sep 2018 11:52:56 GMT

...KIRK HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 AM AST Wed Sep 26 the center of Kirk was located near 12.0, -53.5 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 10A

Wed, 26 Sep 2018 11:52:56 GMT

Issued at 800 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018


579 
WTNT32 KNHC 261152
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
800 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

...KIRK HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 53.5W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Guadeloupe and Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or
watches could be issued later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 53.5 West.  Kirk is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday night.  On the
forecast track, Kirk is expected to approach Barbados and the
northern Windward Islands Thursday afternoon and move into the
eastern Caribbean Sea by Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk moves
through the central Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and evening.
Rapid weakening is expected on Friday after Kirk moves over the
eastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area by Thursday afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL:  Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall totals of
4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 10 across the northern Windward
and southern Leeward Islands from Barbados and St. Lucia northward
across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe.  These rains may
produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Wed, 26 Sep 2018 11:30:34 GMT


593
ABNT20 KNHC 261129
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has re-initiated advisories on
Tropical Storm Kirk, located a few hundred miles east of the
Windward Islands.

A weak low pressure area located about 100 miles southeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing disorganized shower
activity, well to the east of the center. Strong upper-level
winds are expected to inhibit development of this system. The low
is forecast to move northeastward this morning, and it could produce
scattered showers and dangerous surf and rip currents across eastern
North Carolina as it passes by. The low is expected to continue
moving northeastward and merge with a frontal system or dissipate
offshore of the New England coast on Thursday. For more
information, please see products from your local National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Azores is producing disorganized shower
activity and gale-force winds. Leslie is expected to reacquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics on Thursday or Friday while
the cyclone meanders over the north-central Atlantic. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header
WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header
WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 10

Wed, 26 Sep 2018 08:44:52 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018


961 
WTNT42 KNHC 260844
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

Infrared satellite imagery during the past several hours indicates
that deep convection has increased and become better organized near
the center of the remnants of Kirk. In addition, two earlier ASCAT
scatterometer passes between 0000-0100Z indicated that the low-level
center had become a little better defined, and that the inner-core
wind field had contracted, now with a radius of maximum winds (RMW)
of about 40 nmi. Given the continued increase in the amount and
organization of the deep convection, advisories have be re-initiated
on Tropical Storm Kirk. The two ASCAT passes showed peak winds of 38
and 44 kt, so the initial intensity will be a blend of these two
values or 40 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
be investigating Kirk later this morning to provide more detailed
information on the location and intensity of the tropical storm.

The initial motion estimates is an uncertain 280/16 kt, due to the
lack of a well-defined center to track for the past two days. The
global and regional models, excluding the HWRF model, are in very
good agreement on Kirk moving between west and west-northwest for
the next 72 hours along the south side of a strong Bermuda-Azores
high pressure system anchored across most of the subtropical
Atlantic. After that time, strong shear is forecast to weaken Kirk
into a remnant low, resulting in a more westward motion as the
shallow cyclone will be steered by the low-level easterly trade wind
flow. The official forecast track closely follows the HCCA
corrected-consensus model, and is a little south of the simple
consensus model TVCA due to an apparent northward bias in the HWRF
member.

The current modest west to southwesterly vertical wind shear is
forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt during the next 24 hours,
which should allow for some slight strengthening to occur. After 48
hours when Kirk is forecast to emerge over the eastern Caribbean
Sea, the shear is expected to increase to more then 30 kt, which
should act to displace the deep convection to the east of the
low-level center, resulting in rapid weakening. Kirk is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low pressure system after 72 hours, but
this could occur a little sooner than indicated in the official
forecast if Kirk moves farther north and into even stronger shear
conditions. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of
the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 11.8N  52.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 12.4N  55.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 13.2N  57.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 14.1N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 14.8N  62.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 15.7N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 15.9N  71.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z 16.0N  76.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Wed, 26 Sep 2018 08:38:55 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018


804 
FONT12 KNHC 260838
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122018               
0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)   3(24)   X(24)   X(24)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  13(26)   X(26)   1(27)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  23(36)   3(39)   X(39)   X(39)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   1( 1)  24(25)  22(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
MARTINIQUE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   1( 1)  22(23)  16(39)   2(41)   X(41)   X(41)
SAINT LUCIA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAINT LUCIA    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  10(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
SAINT VINCENT  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   6( 6)  36(42)   2(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
BARBADOS       50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
BARBADOS       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 10

Wed, 26 Sep 2018 08:36:24 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018


063 
WTNT22 KNHC 260836
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122018
0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIRK AS ADDITIONAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  52.7W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  52.7W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  51.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.4N  55.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.2N  57.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.1N  60.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.8N  62.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.7N  67.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 15.9N  71.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 16.0N  76.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N  52.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

NHC Status Updates