Hurricane Preparedness
 TitleModified DateSize 
Emergency Preparedness
TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE PREPARATION

Hurricane season begins June 1st of each year and ends November 30th. South Florida can be threatened any time during this season.  This information will help you prepare for a hurricane. Please take the time to read this information carefully.

The following are some useful definitions:

• TROPICAL DEPRESSION has winds of less than 39 miles per hour or 34 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM has winds from 39 to 73 miles per hour or 34 to 63 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM “WARNING” once issued, can develop into a hurricane. 
• HURRICANE “WATCH” - a hurricane may threaten the area within 24-36 hours.
• HURRICANE “WARNING” - a hurricane is expected to strike the area within 24 hours or less.
• HURRICANE has winds of greater than 74 miles per hour or 64 knots.
            Category 1 74-95 MPH Minimal
            Category 2 95-110 MPH Moderate
            Category 3 111-130 Major
            Category 4 131-155 Extensive
            Category 5 156 MPH + Catastrophic

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO BE READY IN THE EVENT OF A DISASTER?

Before the Storm
Preparing in advance for hurricane season can determine not only how safely and comfortably you ride out the storm, but also how easily it is to handle the days and weeks after the storm has passed.  Take a look at the information collected below to learn how you can prepare in the days and weeks before a hurricane.

Plan your stay or evacuation:
Stay Home
: However, before you choose this option, make sure you know your elevation. If we experience a storm that may put a significant storm surge in your home, you need to look at the other options. Also, people in manufactured and mobile homes cannot use this option. Mobile homes and manufactured homes are not built to withstand the high winds associated with tropical storms and hurricanes.

Stay With a Friend or Relative Who has a Safe Place: If this is your plan, make arrangements in advance. You need to make sure that where you are going is safe. It defeats the purpose of evacuating if you go to an unsafe place.

Relocate Out of the Area: You may wish to travel out of harm’s way. Be sure to bring a road map and make sure that your car is full of fuel. Stay away from major bodies of water. Make arrangements in advance if you can. If you decide to use this option, go early, traffic will be heavy if you leave at the last minute, and you may not make it to your destination.

Emergency Public Shelters: For more information on Emergency Shelters and a list of available Public Shelters please visit a Miami-Dade Public Library or Publix Su

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics

Tue, 15 Oct 2019 14:34:51 GMT

Tropical Depression Fifteen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2019 14:34:51 GMT

Tropical Depression Fifteen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2019 15:24:28 GMT

Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 4

Tue, 15 Oct 2019 14:33:08 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019


000
WTNT45 KNHC 151433
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152019
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

The depression doesn't looking very healthy compared to 24 hours ago
when tightly curved convective bands wrapped around the center. Over
the past 12 hours, the convection has devolved into an elongated
north-to-south band of stratiform deep-layer cloudiness with
embedded clusters of moderate to deep convection. The western
semicircle of the broad circulation has degraded with at least two
small low-level circulations revolving southward around the mean
center. A 1045Z partial ASCAT-A pass indicated that the low-level
center was located west of 21W longitude, so the initial position
was adjusted farther west. Intensity estimates range from T1.5/25 kt
from TAFB and the partial ASCAT pass, to 33 kt and 37 kt from
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. For now, the intensity will
be held at 30 kt, which is an average of these estimates.

The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/08 kt, but
this motion is of low confidence given the broad nature of the
cyclone.  Surprisingly, the models remain in quite good agreement
that the depression will move generally northwestward during the
next couple of days and pass over or just east of the northeastern
Cabo Verde Islands. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast by
72 hours and beyond due to the weak and shallow system being steered
by the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track
forecast has been nudged a little to the left or west of the
previous advisory track, mainly due to the more westward initial
position, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus models.

The environmental conditions are expected to remain somewhat
conducive for slight strengthening during the next 12-18 hours.
Although no longer explicitly forecast, it is still possible that
the depression could briefly become a tropical storm later tonight
if a burst of deep convection can develop and tighten up the
inner-core wind field. By late Wednesday, however, the combination
of a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier
mid-level air, and SSTs less than 26C should induce steady to rapid
weakening, resulting in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low
by 36 hours and dissipating in 72-96 hours.

Regardless of whether or not the depression becomes a tropical storm
before passing near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from
this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding in those islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 15.6N  21.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 16.5N  22.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 17.7N  23.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 18.5N  24.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z 19.4N  26.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z 21.6N  30.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152019)

Tue, 15 Oct 2019 14:32:37 GMT

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 15 the center of Fifteen was located near 15.6, -21.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 4

Tue, 15 Oct 2019 14:32:37 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019


000
WTNT35 KNHC 151432
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152019
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 21.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the
progress of the depression.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 21.6 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to
pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today and
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday, and the system is
forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday night or Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the eastern and northern Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause flash
flooding and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could occur across the
eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Tue, 15 Oct 2019 14:32:37 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019


000
FONT15 KNHC 151432
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152019               
1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
RIBIERA GRANDE 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 4

Tue, 15 Oct 2019 14:32:09 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019


000
WTNT25 KNHC 151432
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152019
1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  21.6W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  21.6W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  21.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.5N  22.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.7N  23.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N  24.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.4N  26.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.6N  30.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N  21.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Tue, 15 Oct 2019 11:25:34 GMT


393
ABNT20 KNHC 151125
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fifteen, located a couple hundred miles east of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

A trough of low pressure is producing small area of showers and
thunderstorms over the southern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and
northern Guatemala. This disturbance and another tropical system
over the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains
across a large portion of Central America during the next couple of
days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas. By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast
to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
some development towards the end of the week when the system is
located over the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to become
increasingly hostile over the system, and significant development of
this system appears unlikely while the disturbance moves westward at
15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NHC Status Updates